Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Article: Think the unthinkable — abandon 3G

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 18:10:04 -0500

------- Original Message --------
From: "Syed Maqbool Hassan" <[email-masked]>
Subject:  Article: Think the unthinkable — abandon 3G

Think the unthinkable — abandon 3G

by Ernest Worthman,  RF Design, Sep 1, 2002   

Recently I was sent a piece from a friend of mine that presented an 
interesting take on 3G. It was a story printed in the UK's Financial 
Times by Peter Martin, Financial Times' senior business columnist, 
on July 29th. I think this is a topic that deserves serious 
consideration.

Martin writes, "It is time for the European telecommunications 
industry to think the unthinkable and abandon 3G — third-generation 
mobile telephony." Martin further writes, "This [the demand and need 
for 3G] represents a complete misreading of the future. Instead, 
networks should abandon the dream that handsets will become mobile 
media terminals, with lucrative content and e-commerce revenues. In 
reality, the wireless business will be what it has always been: 
communication between individual customers." Wow. That takes guts to 
say, especially in light of the big deal that make of 3G.

But, you have to have been on the moon… — Quite frankly, you'd have 
to have been totally out of communication with the civilized world 
for this to come as a shocker. The bloodletting of the wireless 
industry (as well as the overall telecom industry) has been going on 
for over two-years now. And, there still aren't any real indicators 
that 3G has an immediate future.

Just recently, the Dutch firm KPN has decided to all but abandon its 
3G mobile phone services. This after they posted billion of dollars 
in net losses for the year.

In Japan, we watched as 3G was constantly delayed as two of the 
countries telecom giants fought to bring 3G to the Japanese 
consumer. In the end only NTT DoCoMo roled out 3G. But, only on a 
limited basis.

Furthermore, Vodaphone, already in a weak financial position has 
delayed its decision to launch 3G services in Ireland — the hits 
just keep coming.

Take off the shades — There is a song I know, by a group called 
Timbuk 3, whose title is "The future's so bright I gotta wear 
shades." I used to think that was 3G's mantra. Now it appears it may 
be 3G's swan song. I've said it before, I'll say it again — It's 
time for the whole world to get realistic about the future of 
wireless interconnect.

It's becoming a common sense issue. Over the years I've discussed 
the many shortcomings of wireless communications. You know, system 
and carrier interoperability, non-ubiquitous coverage, multiple 
proprietary encoding/modulation technologies…etc. And, I've always 
said the magic in making any future wireless systems interoperate is 
some sort of glue technology or a standard platform. Well, it hasn't 
happened and 3G is quickly becoming an afterthought.

Add to that the evolution and implementation of parallel 
technologies (WLANs, Bluetooth, WiFi, Home RF) that can (and are) 
doing much of what 3G was supposed to do, although on a less global 
scale. Furthermore, consider the embarrassing bit rates of wireless 
data over the mobile phone infrastructure and things get even more 
depressing.

"The future of 3G" — What a statement! Quite frankly, there is 3G 
in the future. I think everyone involved in the wireless industry 
believes that. The real question is when and what. We have to get 
real and take our lumps. We have to get a grip on what the end user 
wants (and stop looking at NTT DoCoMo as anything other than a 
novelty). The infrastructure has to get built out before the masses 
will buy into it. We learned that lesson with 2G. And we have to 
make the technology and interface user friendly and a no-brainer.

We should learn our lessons from past mistakes like the infamous 
VHS/Betamax wars. But we may never learn. Witness the current SACD 
and DVD-audio wars and the competing DVD-RAM/R and DVD+RW 
technologies.

Competition is good. But maybe…just maybe, somethings should be a 
monopoly — at least for now.

Source:
http://rfdesign.com/ar/radio_think_unthinkable_abandon/index.htm

Best regards
Syed Hassan

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