Subject: [NEXTEL-1] The mobile world

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2002 18:38:59 -0500

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=34057917&ID=cnniw&scategory=Telecommunications%3AWireless&

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The mobile world

Source: The Futurist

Publication date: 2002-11-01

Arrival time: 2002-11-02

The importance of mobile technology to business and commerce is
growing, thanks to new applications and advancements in devices and
software. According to wireless communications consultant Ron
Schneiderman, analysts expect mobile commerce (m-commerce) to
generate more than $200 billion in revenue by 2006.

"With the number of mobile phones approaching 1 billion globally,
the opportunities for equipment manufacturers, service providers,
and users are tremendous," says Schneiderman. "Market projections
vary widely, but most analysts agree that at least half of all
mobile devices used for Internet access will eventually also be used
for mobile commerce, including business-to-business and business-to-
consumer applications. Most of the trends being projected are very
ambitious."

Among the trends Schneiderman predicts:

* Beginning in 2003 or 2004, more people will use portable
wireless devices to tap into the Internet than personal computers.
More than 1.5 billion mobile devices worldwide will be wireless-
enabled by 2004.

* By 2004, 60% of all U.S. employees will be using wireless
devices on the job; in Japan and Scandinavia, that percentage could
be even higher.

* By 2005, more than 480 million people worldwide will access the
Internet via wireless technology.

* Technological limitations such as tiny screens, relatively high
cost, and lack of truly useful applications will slow growth
initially; the number of m-commerce users in the United States could
still climb to 91 million by 2007.

Speed of growth depends on simplicity and utility, say Mats
Lindgren, Jorgen Jedbratt, and Erika Svensson in their book Beyond
Mobile. "There has to be a readiness among consumers to be
constantly connected, in return for perceived monetary rewards,"
they write. "Suggesting that all this will be in place within five
to seven years is not a secure prediction."

The authors offer four alternative scenarios for the mobile
marketplace in the next five years.

* Scenario 1: The vast majority of western peoples will have and
use mobile services. The mobile Internet will be bigger than the
traditional Internet.

* Scenario 2: Privacy debates will limit mobile marketplace
growth. Some well-established brands, however, will have built up
enough trust that many customers are willing to divulge personal
information for special offers and services.

* Scenario 3: Low demand, poor service, high prices, and privacy
issues will take such a negative toll that no real mobile
marketplace will exist. Primary users: professionals, sales people
keeping in touch with companies, clients.

* Scenario 4: Mobile phones will be viewed as toys, used solely
for communications and games. Primary users: teens, kids, adults
under 30.

A handheld wireless user tunes in to get the latest corporate
updates. New applications and software will make the mobile commerce
world explode in the next decade.

Sources: The Mobile Technology Question and Answer Book: A
Survival Guide of Business Managers by Ron Schneiderman. AMACOM,
www.amacombooks.org. 2002. 240 pages. Paperback. $19.95. (Order
online from www.wfs.org/specials.htm.)

Beyond Mobile: People, Communications and Marketing in a
Mobilized World by Mats Lindgren, Jorgen Jedbratt, and Erika
Svensson. Palgrave, www.palgrave.com. 2002.288 pages. $65. (Order
online from www.wfs.org/ specials.htm.)

Copyright World Future Society Nov/Dec 2002

Publication date: 2002-11-01

© 2002, YellowBrix, Inc.

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