Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Bold Vision Needed to Revitalize Commercial Space

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Date: Wed, 06 Nov 2002 22:26:56 -0500

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November 06, 2002

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Bold Vision Needed to Revitalize Commercial Space

A bold, all-American vision for the future of space commercialization needs to be developed to catalyze U.S. leadership in the field, said Dr. Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of The Lexington Institute, at a meeting of the Washington Space Business Roundtable. The Lexington Institute, a non-profit public policy think tank located in Arlington, Virginia, traditionally has not been involved in space issues, but his remarks to the WSBR represented "an attempt to correct this," he said.

Thompson said that one of the most important lessons of the last decade has been a general recognition that "every aspect of space activity" - commercial, military, governmental, scientific - "is really just an element of a single business." Because U.S. aerospace companies have been more engaged in competitive posturing than in cooperation and shared vision, U.S. space leadership has eroded dramatically. While Thompson conceded that the United States is still the global leader across all disciplines in this arena, he added, "we are less ahead than ever before."

Thompson urged the industry to take the lead in creating a specific and energizing goal for the space marketplace that is "technologically feasible, economically affordable and politically saleable." Such a goal, to be achieved within 10 years, might be the development and successful test of a single-stage-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle (RLV) with a 30-ton payload capability. However, Thompson added that he is not in the business of setting goals and that his RLV proposal is merely a suggestion. It would be up to the U.S. space industry to articulate and then build momentum for a relevant, achievable goal that would spark the imaginations, the commitment, and the intelligence of a new generation of space engineers, architects, and businesspeople.

"Our governing elites do not understand the scientific process," Thompson said, adding that the failure of successive U.S. administrations to sustain a robust civil space program or craft a workable export control regime are evidence of an intellectual vacuum at the top. "If we had an enlightened government, the aerospace sector would not be in decline," he declared. Unhappily, the current government has no vision and is "pretty thin on the credentials" to shape one, he judged.

Thompson harkened back to the glory days of the space race. "For those of you who can remember how you felt 30 years ago, is this the space industry you thought you would see in the 21st century?" The answer, clearly, is no.

So what can industry do? Thompson offered three stages to a new vision for commercial space. First, he said, industry must show a greater sense of common vision and purpose. The large companies, such as Lockheed Martin [LMT] and Boeing [BA], need to take the lead in this process. "They have to recognize that they share the same decaying orbit," Thompson said.

Second, the industry "must convince the U.S. government that the current economic model for this sector does not work. Government needs to create a shared enterprise that engages the energies and creativity of Lockheed Martin and Boeing, while we still have an industry left to save," he said. These two companies, Thompson added, need to stop spending so much money trying to put the other out of business and instead direct the future development of commercial and government space activities.

Finally, industry has to offer a vision that "transcends politics," engages the public for the long term, and makes sense in the context of exploiting space. A deadline of 2012, the 50th anniversary of John Glenn's orbital Mercury mission, should be set. Thompson posited as a goal the development and demonstration of an RLV with a 30-ton payload capacity. He put total costs from drawing room to operational status in the neighborhood of $20 billion.

While Thompson admitted that his proposal might not be the best one, he defended his right to frame the issue and suggest a goal. "Why not start now to build something new?" he asked. Thompson invited his listeners to critique his proposals and to offer their own ideas. But at the end of the day, he said, "We have to figure out what we want to subsidize. At the rate we're going, space will become just too expensive to get to."

--Scott Chase

This article first appeared in PBI Media's Satellite News

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