Subject: [p2p-sip] Is it true (SIP vs. Jingle During 2006 ) :http://www.voipwiki.com/blog/?cat=12

From: thangarajan.i at flextronicssoftware.com ([email-masked])
Date: Wed, 9 Aug 2006 12:25:40 +0530

SIP vs. Jingle During 2006

People who downplay Jingle's impact on the industry and maintain that SIP
will continue to dominate 2006 are missing the bigger picture. First, SIP 
is
NOT the most dominant VoIP protocol: Skype is. The Skype protocol accounts
for over 45% of the VoIP traffic in the United States and probably even 
more
on a global basis. Any protocol that grows at a rate faster than Skype 
with
the capacity to unseat it as the leading VoIP protocol will definitely
dominate 2006.

Second, many people think of VoIP in terms of Vonage, CallVantage and
BroadVoice. To me, these are just VoIP Telcos that use SIP to deliver
services: they are not true VoIP Companies. The real growth in VoIP is in
online communities like Skype and Google Talk. Skype grew by 18 Million
subscribers and Skype users made over 5 Billion minutes of calls using
during the fourth quarter of 2005 alone, dwarfing the VoIP Phone 
Companies.

It is also important to remember that the VoIP Telcos are device agnostic.
Their baseline requires only that customers receive service comparable 
with
the quality of standard PSTN phone service. SIP may be present standard 
for
termination and origination of VoIP calls with the PSTN, but this does not
in any way mean that SIP is dominating the VoIP world. Jingle will 
dominate
the market with respect to growth, development and innovation during 2006.

Third, SIP by itself is not viral, but peer-to-peer is. You don't have
people calling you up saying "Hey, can you please become a Vonage customer
so that I can call you up and talk to you for free." Chances are VoIP 
Phone
Company customers are already making calls for free. But you DO have 
people
sending you messages or perhaps even calling you asking you to subscribe 
to
Skype. The same will occur for Google Talk.

Fourth, the marketing power of AOL can not be ignored. AOL has somewhere
around 40 Million users in the USA and another 20 Million users outside 
the
USA. AOL's biggest problem during the past few years has been lack of
innovation, not a lack of marketing. There are 40 Million AOL users who 
have
never heard of VoIP, they just use AOL products. Google Talk's marriage 
with
AOL will finally give the marketing gurus in Reston some cutting edge
technology they can sell. Viral marketing will take on a whole new 
meaning.

Fifth, the incredibly powerful developer community that Google will foster
should not be underestimated. Skype has already committed the cardinal sin
of "eating their young" by copying functionality of Skype addons without
providing any compensation to the original developers. Ebay has an even
worse reputation for API support.

Google, on the other hand, is a master at fostering community coding
activity to enhance the functionality of their product offerings. Google
will do this on two levels with Google Talk. First, they will encourage
third parties to create addons that integrate with the official Google 
Talk.
Look for mashups integrating Google Maps, Google Local, Gmail, Google
Translate, etc. All of these enhancements will just make Google Talk that
much more compelling to the end user.

On a second level Google will encourage third parties to develop Google 
Talk
compatible applications. Today Skype goes into a country, finds a 
potential
partner with a huge user base, and enters into revenue sharing 
relationship
with them. So far these agreements tend to exclude the local telecom
monopolies, and they lose revenue as a result. Many countries will quickly
move to block Skype and end this arbitrage as blocking methods become more
readily available.

Google published the source code of Google Talk in order to encourage 
others
to develop compatible applications that are able to access the Google Talk
network. This will allow telephone monopolies in central Asia, Africa and
the Middle East to develop (or license) their own softphones which are
compatible with Google Talk so that they can offer dial out services and
profit as a result. Meanwhile, Google will still realize the benefit of
having these users on their network. Look to see Google Talk permitted by
countries that block Skype. This is a direct challenge to the Skype 
business
model.

Google is counting on three things with respect to revenue. First, the 
more
people that become members of the Google Talk network the stronger and 
more
valuable the network will become. Second, Google will be able to generate
revenue from these users in other ways, for instance perhaps through
advertising they include in streaming audio or video available to these
markets. Third, no matter how good the competition is, Google branded
products will always claim the lion's share of the market. Some people 
will
always want to use the real McCoy, and these users will generate revenue 
for
Google.

Finally, the assault on Skype as a protocol has already begun. Verso, a US
company based out of Atlanta already announced a pilot program with a
tier-one carrier in China (either China Telecom or China Netcom) to block
Skype. I personally know of a group of engineers in China who have 
recently
come up with an alternative method to block Skype, supposedly much less
complicated and much easier to implement. Look for Google Talk's main
competition, Skype, to start to run into complications with local telecom
monopolies in central Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Problems for Skype
equate to opportunities for the competition, especially a competition that
is more inclined to share the wealth.
_______________________________________________
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Sip-implementors at cs.columbia.edu
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From: enrico.marocco at telecomitalia.it (Enrico Marocco)
Date: Wed, 09 Aug 2006 09:51:23 +0200

> SIP vs. Jingle During 2006

This post, although interesting, is very off topic: you are posting on a
technical mailing list.  A better place for this kind of discussion may
be some newsgroup like comp.dcom.voice-over-ip.

Ahem... Folks, please, do not feed the trolls.

--
Enrico

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