Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Microsoft SPOT Delayed...

From: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2003 06:30:19 -0500

Microsoft SPOT Delayed...

Contributed by mmasnick on Mon, Nov 10 2003

Ever since Microsoft announced their plans to offer wireless data to watches
using the old radio datacasting system, folks like Alan Reiter have been
explaining why it won't work. Now it seems that Microsoft is discovering a few
problems with the plan themselves. Despite previous announcements saying it
would be out this fall, Microsoft's SPOT service is nowhere to be found. The
company says the technology is "still in testing" which is a codephrase for "we
miscalculated".

www.techdirt.com

======================================================================

Clock ticks for Web on a wristwatch
Last modified: November 10, 2003, 11:58 AM PST
By Michael Kanellos
Staff Writer, CNET News.com

Those who want to receive information from the Internet through a wristwatch or
fridge magnet may have to wait a little longer.
Microsoft's Smart Personal Objects Technology (SPOT), which the company unveiled
last year right before the Comdex trade show, is still in testing, according to
a company representative, who declined to give an estimated release date.
Microsoft earlier said the technology would be launched in the fall.

SPOT seeks to remove any headaches or impediments involved in getting online.
With SPOT, Internet data can be broadcast over a nationwide FM radio network to
wristwatches, personal digital assistants, refrigerators and other devices.
Conceivably, a SPOT-enabled alarm clock could publish the latest headlines when
it wakes up its owner.

The data feed will adjust for travel, so that a traveler who flies from Seattle
to San Jose, Calif., will start getting California weather reports when he or
she gets off the plane, Rich Rashid, senior vice president of Microsoft Research
said.
Watchmakers Fossil and Suunto have said they will release SPOT devices, while
Microsoft will market a service, called MSN Direct, that will provide the data
feed for a $9.95 monthly fee. Microsoft is testing the project in eight
metropolitan areas in North America, but the plan is to have the network blanket
100 cities on the continent.
National Semiconductor is making the chipsets for the project.

Although apparently delayed, the SPOT program fits into the tradition of the
"next big thing" taking some time to gather momentum.  Microsoft's Tablet PC was
previewed at Comdex 2001 and then launched just before the convention in 2002.
Although sales of the operating system have generally met analysts' forecasts,
expectations for it started low, and some computer makers groused about the high
price of the software.

http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5104954.html
==============================================================

Microsoft's wireless data network:
20-year-old technology and applications

Microsoft's wireless data network, which chairman Bill
Gates revealed at the Consumer Electronics Show last
night, is based upon technology and applications that are
20 years old.  Although technology certainly has improved,
history is littered with businesses that have failed using
this technology.  Even if the technology is up to the job,
the applications -- at least those discussed -- are banal
and already available.

During his keynote address, Gates discussed using
Microsoft's SPOT (Smart Personal Objects Technology) for
transmitting information to a variety of personal devices,
starting with wristwatches.  The data will be sent via the
"DirectBand Network" nationwide network employing FM
radio subcarrier technology covering more than 100 of the
top metropolitan areas in the United States and 14 metro
cities in Canada.

I believe Microsoft is working with Clear Channel
Worldwide, the largest owner of radio stations in the
United States.  Clear Channel has previously worked with
Microsoft.  I have sent an e-mail to Clear Channel to
confirm this, but haven't yet received a reply.  Update:
Just got a call back from Clear Channel.  They are indeed
leasing their stations' subcarriers to Microsoft.

I know this stuff
I just happen to know something about the technology
and applications Microsoft is using.  In 1983 I created the
world's first (I believe) newsletter devoted exclusively
to.....FM radio subcarriers.  I sold/merged my newsletter a
few years later with a small publishing company, where I
continued to write about FM radio subcarriers and other
one-way data broadcasting technology.  (Less than a year
later, I created the world's first mobile data newsletter.)

Unless you have been following the wireless industry for
many years, you probably don't know much about FM radio
subcarriers.  So, settle back and be prepared for a long
report about the technology, applications and how all this
relates to Microsoft's dreams

FM radio subcarrier history
The Federal Communications Commission allocates
bandwidth to every radio station.  Radio stations transmit
their regular programs on their main channel -- or main
carrier -- but these programs don't need to use the entire
bandwidth.  Stations are able to split their bandwidth into
a main channel and "subsidiary" channels -- subcarriers --
to transmit other information.

In 1983, the FCC deregulated the use of subcarriers,
enabling radio stations to transmit just about anything
they wanted (voice and data), assuming it didn't interfere
with their main channel transmissions.  Before
deregulation, FM stations could transmit certain types of
voice services on these subchannels, such as background
music (Muzak) and reading services for the blind.

The deregulation sparked a huge amount of interest in
"new" one-way data services including traffic reports,
weather reports, stock reports, news headlines, sports
scores -- using dedicated receivers as well as pagers.  This
is exactly what Gates was discussing.  These applications
are decades old.

The sad fact, though, is the FM radio subcarrier business
was a failure for most of the "hot" applications.

Hot turns cold
When the FCC deregulated FM radio subcarriers, the
paging industry went crazy.  They thought the entry of the
radio broadcasters -- a huge, well-funded industry with
high-powered transmitters -- would be a major competitive
force.  They were wrong.  FM subcarrier paging failed
miserably, with a few very modest exceptions.  Why did did
subcarrier paging fail?  Some of the reasons:

1.  Radio station executives understood voice radio, not
data or paging.
2.  While many radio stations have high-powered
transmitters, many do not.
3.  Radio stations were not allowed to install additional
transmitters to provide better subcarrier service.  If there
were gaps in coverage -- outside and in buildings -- and
there were many gaps, radio stations were unable to
install "fill in" transmitters.

4.  Many people simply didn't want or want to pay for
the applications.
5.  Radio stations got paid for leasing their subcarriers.
Sometimes the leasing fee was relatively low, so it really
didn't make much of a difference to a radio station's overall
revenues and, consequently, they didn't care much about
subcarrier services.  Sometimes the fee was relatively high,
but it was so high that subcarrier companies couldn't afford
them.

There are other reasons as well.
FM subcarrier paging

Reach, Inc., Nokia, and Cue Corp. and Seiko were among
the companies in the FM subcarrier business.  There were
FM radio subcarrier "black box" pagers, watches, internal
OEM modules, external receivers, automobile radios -- and
most of these devices were failures.

Cue hung on for years.  They thought of everything Gates
suggested -- including traffic information -- and much, much
more.

All the applications discussed by Gates are now available
on other wireless networks, including two-way paging
systems and cellular systems.  Big deal.  These
applications, for the most part, are old news.

More sizzle this time

Microsoft's entry into the market will, obviously, generate a
lot of excitement and renewed interest in this technology.
Also, some of the companies manufacturing the watches --
Citizen and Fossil -- certainly understand how to create
great looking products that appeal to consumers.

But the only interesting (maybe) application I saw was,
apparently, the ability to change your watch face so that
there could be different hands and graphics.  It's a sort of
"software-defined watch."

Where's the beef?
I'm certainly not going to write off this new venture.  After
all, how can you write off a venture that hasn't even been
launched?  And, you can never write off Microsoft.

I am disappointed, though, that the announcement
seemed to be just an echo of the past.  The wireless
industry has, as I have written ad nauseum, often not
learned from history and continues to make the same
mistakes.

Sizzle, flashy Web sites and advertisements will not create
a business.

But perhaps people will purchase these watches because
they like the design rather than the wireless data
features.  The watch does, apparently, maintain accurate
time automatically and also automatically changes time
zones in the U.S. when you're traveling.  This is not a new
feature.  Seiko, among others, had it on its subcarrier
MessageWatch, which was discontinued years ago.

People will have to pay for the wireless data services.
Either they will pay a monthly fee or the fee will be
included (at least for a certain number of months) as part
of the cost of the watch.  Even if the fee is $5 a month, the
services -- as announced -- don't justify the cost.

Of course, Microsoft is looking at a whole range of devices
that would incorporate its SPOT software.  Watches are
just the first step.  But succeeding in wireless data is a
very, very difficult business.
http://reiter.weblogger.com/2003/01/09

------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/61FxlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/