Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Relatively few switch cell numbers so far

From: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2003 10:16:47 -0500

Relatively few switch cell numbers so far

By Barry Shlachter
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Cellphone users could carry their numbers over to a new provider for the first
time Monday, but such changeovers fell on the low end of industry projections or
even lower, said a company that handles about 80 percent of transactions.

Many Americans apparently heeded the advice of consumer experts to hold back
until it is clear that the system can handle the switching, said Helen Harris, a
spokeswoman with Tampa-based TSI Telecommunication Services.

Industry estimates of first-day phone-number transfers ranged from 1 million to
9 million, but Harris said the number could end up in the "hundreds of
thousands." A clearer picture of the aggregate would not be available until this
morning, she said.

Albert Lin, a San Francisco-based analyst with American Technology Research,
said there will be no big-scale switching during the first 90 days despite
predictions from industry observers, the White House and equity analysts.

The reason, Lin said, is that two-thirds of cell users are tied to contracts. A
half-percentage-point increase in "churn," or changing service providers, is
likely during the first quarter of 2004, with a higher-than-usual rate of
switches for an 18-month period, he said.

Lin joined other analysts in predicting that Verizon and Sprint will end up
gaining while Cingular and AT&T will lose subscribers. Phone manufacturers will
generally benefit from the activity, he said.

"We feel that this will have a positive impact on the handset sales, but we
expect it to stabilize in two to three quarters," Nokia Chief Executive Jorma
Ollila said at an analyst meeting in Irving. Nokia, the leading manufacturer of
cellphone handsets, is expected to see a boost from the thousands of U.S.
customers taking advantage of the rule change.

Harris said privately held TSI, which reported $331 million in revenues last
year, expects $35 million to $40 million in additional revenues from processing
switches.

Sprint, Verizon and Virgin Wireless reported a higher-than-usual volume of new
customers signing up Monday, which all three attributed to Congress making
numbers portable. All said the switches were overwhelmingly wireless to
wireless, not land line to wireless, which also became possible Monday, with
consumers able to keep their old numbers.

Chief Financial Officer Mark Feidler said that "it appears it was a favorable
day for Cingular," but a spokeswoman declined to say if that meant Cingular
gained customers.

AT&T and Nextel representatives declined to comment, saying such information is
too sensitive to release.

If Hurst's North East Mall is any market indicator, Verizon was picking up
switchers while vendors selling Cingular, AT&T and T-Mobile said there were
inquiries but no added business because of the change. The only Sprint outlet,
Radio Shack, which also sells Verizon service, declined to comment on Monday's
sales.

Sean Bond uses Verizon; his wife, Laura, uses Sprint. They waited six months for
the change in federal regulations to make a switch.

The old system, Sean Bond joked, "was a great way for the cellphone companies to
hold you hostage."

His wife is one of seven siblings, so changing numbers would have been a
considerable nuisance for her family, Sean Bond said.

They stayed, even paying an extra $10 a month not to be locked into an annual
contract, so she could switch when numbers became portable. "We've been waiting
for this to come for some time," said Sean Bond, director of Bell Boeing's V-22
program.

By 1:30 p.m., six people had switched providers at the Verizon mall outlet
before Bond walked in. "It's a bit busier than usual," said Jennifer Smith, the
manager.

The transfer took Bond less than 15 minutes after he picked out an "early
Christmas present" cellphone for his wife that can relay digital photos.

While the transaction was taking place, Gary Riding, Verizon region president,
entered the store, looking pleased with the busy counter staff.

"No one makes money with churn," Riding said, explaining that the industry
spends $250 to $400 to snare a new customer. "But those with the lowest monthly
churn, they will likely be the winners."

Andrea Smith, a 21-year-old cocktail waitress at Humperdinks Restaurant,
strolled in with the intention of dropping her current provider because of bad
reception near her Bedford home.

"I get to keep my old number?" she said. "Cool."

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/7345439.htm

---

From: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2003 10:34:13 -0500

Like I said................

[email-masked] wrote:

> time Monday, but such changeovers fell on the low end of industry projections
> or even lower, said a company that handles about 80 percent of transactions.
>

---

From: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2003 10:57:25 -0500

Anyone want to guess what the next new "hype" will be for the cellphone
industry?

[email-masked] wrote:

>> Cellphone users could carry their numbers over to a new provider for the
>> first time Monday, but such changeovers fell on the low end of industry
>> projections or even lower, said a company that handles about 80 percent of
>> transactions.
>>
>
>                    Yahoo! Groups Sponsor

>
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