Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Operators Wary of WiMax, Study Says

From: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 26 Nov 2003 15:56:18 -0500

Operators Wary of WiMax, Study Says
By Vikki Lipset 
November 20, 2003 

Many are calling WiMax the next big thing in wireless. Yet lost in 
the hype is the fact that fixed wireless operators have not yet 
embraced the technology, says John Yunker, a Pyramid Research 
analyst. 

In a new report, "Wi-Fi and WiMax: Unwiring the World," Yunker 
predicts that WiMax will ultimately succeed, making up 60 percent of 
the broadband wireless market by 2008, but points to operator 
skepticism as one of the chief challenges that it will face in the 
meantime. "The fixed wireless industry is littered with broken 
promises," he says, and operators will remain leery of adopting 
802.16a equipment until prices come down and the technology is 
proven. 

A few high-profile deployments could go a long way toward assuaging 
operators' concerns. Yunker speculates that Nextel might begin 
supplying fixed wireless services to enterprise clients in early 
2005. "Their competitive advantage in push to talk is clearly being 
eroded, so they need to look for a new way to capture the 
enterprise." 

He points out that Nextel, the nation's No. 5 wireless carrier is 
already acquiring the necessary spectrum, and that WiMax would give 
them an edge over other carriers. Intel and equipment vendors may 
even subsidize and promote such a rollout, he suggests. 

WiMax will evolve in two stages, says Yunker. The first stage will 
begin in the middle of next year, when commercial gear hits the 
market. The initial products will be similar to current broadband 
wireless equipment in terms of price and function, Yunker notes. 

The second stage, he says, will begin with the introduction of 
portability via 802.16e, as WiMax chipsets are built into laptops and 
other mobile devices along with Wi-Fi. "This is where it's really 
potentially disruptive," he says. This second stage won't begin until 
at least 2006, as the 802.16e standard hasn't even been finalized. 

By 2008, Pyramid forecasts that there will be 2 to 4 million 
broadband fixed wireless lines, generating up to $2 billion in access 
revenues. Asia and Central and Eastern Europe will be the two hottest 
markets; they are expected to add nearly 2 million lines in the next 
five years. 

Operators in emerging markets are interested in WiMax for low-cost 
voice transport and delivery, while in developed markets, operators 
view it more as a means of delivering high-speed Internet access. 
Either way, despite their initial reservations, the operators will 
eventually come around. 

"At the end of the day, it's about getting connectivity to rural and 
underserved markets," says Yunker, "and this will be the cheapest 
alternative." 

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,4149,1392642,00.asp

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