Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Life After 3G Wireless

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Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2003 08:53:29 -0500

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Life
After 3G Wireless

21st November, 2003

Europe
: With
3G set for widespread launch in 2004 across Europe, operators are already
thinking about the post 3G world and what comes next. According to a
new report from mobile industry analysts, ARC Group, the technologies
making the largest immediate impact on the post 3G world will be the
upgrades to 3.5G and integration of WLAN into wide area networks.

3.5G
is an upgrade of 3G which uses technologies like High Speed Downlink
Packet Access (HSDPA), Time Division Duplex (TDD) and proprietary technologies
like Flash OFDM. Despite the slower than expected uptake of 3G, operators
are already interested in 3.5G with NTT DoCoMo planning on launching
HSDPA services in 2005 and several Chinese operators looking at using
UMTS TDD in 2007. 3.5G technologies are forecast to reach 9.1 million
subscribers by 2008.

In
the run-up to 4G - which is not expected until 2010 at the earliest
- operators will look for ways to enhance network performance through
evolutionary upgrades in the same way EDGE and 1xRTT have been used
in the 2G world. HSDPA is expected to become the most popular of 3.5G
technologies due to its support from major vendors like Nokia. HSDPA
uses adaptive modulation and a new shared downlink transport channel
type to achieve a two-fold increase in air interface capacity and a
five-fold increase in data speeds in the downlink direction.

With
the advent of WLAN enabled PDA's and smartphones, there is likely to
be more competition from PWLAN providers for broadband mobile revenues.
However, rather than compete head on, PWLAN will be subsumed into the
network mix, supplementing the 3G/3.5G network for data intensive applications.
Despite this, mobile subscribers using PWLAN services over their mobile
device will only make up around 50 million users by 2008, less than
20% of total 3G subscribers.

Chris
White, Telecoms Consultant at ARC Group comments: "Too much attention
has been paid to how PWLAN will compete with 3G rather than looking
at the benefits of combining both network technologies. Independent
PWLAN operators have found it hard to put a viable business case together
but with the involvement of mobile operators and the widespread availability
of WLAN capable mobile devices, the case looks much stronger."

Further
integration of WLAN into the mobile network mix is one of the vital
stepping stones to 4G. The so-called access pyramid model, where multiple
networks coexist allowing users to seamlessly switch between the most
appropriate network for the device and situation, will not substitute
the need for a 4G network. At the heart of everything will be the core
network, be it 3G or 4G, which will be supplemented by PAN and WLAN
offerings and by network upgrades in the medium-term.

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Life
After 3G Wireless

3.5G
is an upgrade of 3G which uses technologies like High Speed Downlink Packet
Access (HSDPA), Time Division Duplex (TDD) and proprietary technologies
like Flash OFDM.

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