Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Wi-Max in danger of becoming overhyped

From: [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 03:36:56 -0400

Friday 30 April 2004 
 
Wi-Max in danger of becoming overhyped

The WiMax mobile wireless standard is gaining support among telecoms 
companies, but industry observers are concerned there is a risk of 
it becoming over-hyped.

The fixed side of WiMax is well along the path to commercialisation, 
but mobile WiMax will not be in wide use until after 2009, according 
to Gartner.

"It's very easy, given the huge amount of WiMax hype at the moment, 
to see WiMax as the next big thing after 3G," said Gartner analyst 
Ian Keene. "But that's not the case - it's a fixed wireless 
solution, an alternative to DSL. Mobile WiMax is a new cellular 
technology, and it's got a heck of a long way to go."

WiMax, based on the IEEE 802.16 group of standards, is intended to 
replace two distinct types of wireless broadband technology: fixed 
wireless, which could compete with or supplement ADSL, cable and 
leased lines, and mobile wireless, which makes broadband speeds 
available anywhere in a coverage area, including moving vehicles or 
public places. Mobile WiMax could complement 3G and Wi-Fi hotspots.

The standard is designed to make equipment less expensive and more 
interoperable, which would improve the business case for building 
networks. Equipment using the fixed 802.16d standard will arrive 
this year, and be certified next year. the WiMax Forum has promised 
that a relatively easy upgrade will add on mobile 802.16e 
capabilities, but 802.16e equipment will not be ready for another 
three years or so.

The WiMax Forum, the industry group promoting WiMax, got a boost on 
Monday when BT and France T él écom became members, along with Qwest 
Communications International, Reliance Telecom and XO Communications.

The official support of BT and T él écom will be valuable, since 
service providers are, necessarily, WiMax's target customers, but 
both operators see WiMax as a supplement to their existing wired 
networks.

Operators who want mobile broadband are more ambiguous in their 
attitudes to WiMax. Verizon Communications, Sprint and Nextel 
Communications, for example, have all said they are interested in 
mobile broadband but none are WiMax Forum members.

Since February, Nextel has been conducting trials of a proprietary 
technology from Flarion in the US, and the company emphasised that 
mobility is key to its offering.

"This is for customers who don't want to be tied to their desk or 
their office. You can go anywhere and use this service," said Nextel 
spokesman Chris Grandis. "It's beyond 3G."

Nextel also offers a wireless data card for laptops, operating at 
dial-up speeds, and plans to use Motorola's WiDEN technology to 
quadruple bandwidth, in the second half of this year.

Sprint and Verizon are toying with high-speed cellular technologies 
such as EV-DO while waiting to see if anything promising emerges 
from WiMax efforts, but could just as easily use proprietary 
equipment if it is more cost effective, the companies have said.

"We do keep an eye on WiMax as we do all new technologies," said 
Sprint spokesman Charles Fleckenstein. "If it makes business sense 
to move forward in this area, Sprint will do so."

In Europe, where 3G rollouts are already well advanced, wireless 
operators such as Vodafone Group and T-Mobile International have 
even less incentive to jump on board a mobile technology that is 
years away, said IDC analyst Jan Hein Bakkers.

"We don't think there will be any standardised [mobile WiMax] 
products before 2007," he said. "By that time there will be a lot of 
Wi-Fi hotspots out there already, and operators will have more UMTS 
[a 3G standard] networks. I don't see WiMax bringing that much 
additional value."

Others predicted more service providers will get on board the WiMax 
bandwagon, but agreed that it is still unclear what role WiMax will 
play. "It's a very new technology, and operators are not absolutely 
certain where it fits in with the other parts of the jigsaw puzzle, 
vis-a-vis 3G, Wi-Fi hotspots and so on," said Infonetics analyst 
Richard Webb.

Fixed WiMax has a more immediate potential for success, analysts 
said, because it will provide services similar to existing wireless 
broadband, while introducing lower costs and equipment 
interoperability.

Small wireless ISPs such as Irish Broadband in Dublin, NextWeb in 
California and TowerStream on the US east coast are offering 
wireless services that compete with existing wired offerings. A 
survey published this week by ABI Research found that more than half 
of small wireless ISPs planned to deploy WiMax equipment as soon as 
it is available to reduce equipment costs.

Larger Western European telcos primarily want WiMax to fill in the 
gaps in their wired networks. Earlier this week BT said it would use 
a combination of ADSL and a WiMax-like system from Alvarion to 
provide broadband across Northern Ireland. BT has said it is 
interested in migrating to WiMax-standard gear.

Some analysts see this as a shrinking niche. BT also announced this 
week it will enable another 1,128 ADSL exchanges by mid-2005 which, 
it claimed, will give broadband access to 99.6% of UK businesses and 
households. France T él écom's ADSL will reach 90% of businesses and 
households this year, according to IDC.

Across Western Europe, about 83% of consumers and businesses had 
access to broadband last year, and in the next two years or so that 
will rise to 90% to 95%, according to IDC's Bakkers. "In Western 
Europe, the role of WiMax will be limited," he said.

WiMax is expected to come fully into its own in areas where networks 
are not as fully built-out as in Western Europe and the US, such as 
Eastern Europe.

"Regardless of which vendor comes out on top, it is the millions of 
people in rural and developing markets who stand to gain the most 
from WiMax," said Pyramid Research analyst John Yunker.

Matthew Broersma writes for Techworld.com

http://www.computerweekly.com/Article130285.htm

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