Subject: [BEHAVE] NAT66 in the media

From: "Eric Klein" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Dec 2008 16:06:48 +0200

As we are all discussing what to do about NAT66 here is an article that came
out on the 28th:

IPv6… the Year NAT-Enforced IPv4 Dam Showed
Seepage<http://www.circleid.com/posts/20081128_ipv6_nat_enforced_ipv4_dam/>
Nov
28, 2008 12:43 PM PST
http://www.circleid.com/posts/20081128_ipv6_nat_enforced_ipv4_dam/
By *Yves Poppe* <http://www.circleid.com/members/2967/>

We don't give enough credit to people who will sacrifice themselves trying
to plug the IPv4 dam with some NAT-putty. They even dream of a NAT66 filled
afterlife. The growing IPv6 traffic trickle was given evidence at the recent
RIPE 57 <http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-57/> meeting in Dubai in a
number of presentations, including a most edifying Google
presentation<http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-57/presentations/thursday.html>(see
*Global IPv6 statistics* by Lorenzo Colliti, and the related CircleID
post<http://www.circleid.com/posts/20081113_current_state_ipv6_ordinary_users/>).
Noteworthy to see France with a 0.65% IPv6 penetration, largely courtesy of
free.fr <http://www.free.fr/>, a major ISP offering an extremely successful
triple play service based on their customer premise freebox which they
decided to also IPv6 enable. And, oh yes, 95% of French IPv6 traffic is
native. In the meantime it felt good to see the US and Canada doing quite
well with a 0.45% penetration. Major difference with France is that here in
North America 95% of the traffic was 6to4. Most likely the popularity of
Mac's and the Airport Extreme has something to do with it. When ranked by
operating system, Mac OS leads in IPv6 penetration with 2.44% followed by
Linux and Vista while XP and Windows 2000 are negligible.

The rather modest showing of IPv6 powerhouse Japan with only 0.15% IPv6
penetration was rather surprising and warrants some further analysis. The
other real surprise was to see Russia claiming the overall number one
ranking with 0.76% penetration!

Besides access and OS support, the third variable in the equation is the
IPv6 routing between ISP's and their respective Autonomous System Numbers.
There was a lot of speculation about the "brokenness" of IPv6. Google
measurements show 0.09% of clients lost and 150ms extra latency; some way to
go but not that bad and improving. Major tier1 ISP's including AS6453 are
dual stack and peer with each other in both IPv4 and IPv6; we also see a
growing number of IP transit customers upgrading their connections to dual
stack.

When the fourth variable, IPv6 accessible content, will be in place the dam
burst will come tantalizingly closer. IPv6 accessible websites and e-mail
are not commonplace yet but slowly growing. And interesting phenomena happen
to CDN's when issuing AAAA addresses to content: immediate increases in IPv6
traffic are visible!

2009 will see the seeping become leaking, 2010 will witness the first
serious cracks, 2011 will see the dam buckle, 2012…

In the meantime I wish you all a happy and IPv6 filled New Year.
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