Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Taking It With You

From: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 12:04:08 -0500

Taking It With You

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Taking It With You

By Staff
March 1, 2003

© 2003, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Efforts are under way to gain additional waivers related to the FCC mandate for wireless local number portability, but industry observers widely believe carriers will end up having to adhere to the Nov. 24 deadline. LNP, which allows customers to keep their phone number when switching service providers, is expected to drive churn, with the most likely beneficiaries being Verizon Wireless and Nextel Communications, according to analysts at Thomas Weisel Partners. Cingular Wireless, with its ongoing network transition and geographic and spectrum footprint, is expected to be the biggest loser, according to TWP's white paper, "You Can Take It With You." The analysts expect the industry will experience higher churn for two to three quarters after LNP implementation despite contract cancellation fees designed to deter churn. An informal survey of about 350 wireless users indicates about 55 percent of the respondents view the lack of number portability as an inhibiting factor in switching cell phone service, the paper says.

U.S. Wireless Industry-Impact Of Number Portability

Key Number Portability Factors

Possible Beneficiaries

Net Neutral

Potentially Disadvantaged

Company

Nextel Communications

Verizon Wireless

AT&T Wireless

T-Mobile

Sprint PCS

Cingular Wireless

Sub Base (million)

10.5

32.5

20.9

9.9

14.8

22.0

Limited Size of Customer Base

****

*

**

*****

***

**

Revenue/Cost/Rate Card Analysis

*****

**

***

*****

*****

*

Quality of Footprint (per Consumer Reports)

****

*****

***

*

**

**

Comment

Differentiated product and relatively small but high quality base suggests losses will be low and net gain possibilities are good.

Very high quality network offsets the big target of its customer base.

Good mix of network quality and brand name should offset the size of base issue.

Smaller base and low prices could attract "value" subscribers.

Quality of footprints and customers may not fully offset attractive pricing and cost structure.

Size of base, technology transition and mixed channel message may create problems.

***** (five stars)=best
Source: Thomas Weisel Partners

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